VMware Workloads Outlook and Migration Strategies: Insights from Gartner
More than a third of current VMware workloads are expected to transition to other platforms by 2028, driven by shifts in vendor strategies and customer preferences. Gartner's research VP Julia Palmer highlighted these trends during the firm's Symposium event in Australia, emphasizing changes in licensing policies and platform competitiveness.
Licensing Changes Impacting VMware's Ecosystem
Palmer pointed out that Broadcom—a recent acquirer of VMware—has modified its licensing program to prevent hyperscalers from reselling VMware subscriptions to end users of hosted VMware services. Now, customers must purchase directly from Broadcom and leverage license portability for VMware infrastructure in hyperscale clouds.
Hyperscalers and VMware: Strategic Divergence
The decision signals a strained relationship, with Palmer noting that VMware does not view hyperscalers as strategic partners. Meanwhile, hyperscalers aim to attract VMware users, knowing many will eventually transition to traditional cloud environments. Palmer suggests that these providers will leverage their engagements to promote public cloud adoption.
Why VMware Usage Might Decline
Palmer expects a significant migration away from VMware, as hyperscalers will use their influence to endorse cloud options over on-premises virtualization. She urges VMware customers to consider this evolving landscape and listen to the advantages of public cloud platforms.
Recommendations for Migration and Modernization
Palmer advises against attempting an immediate, full migration from VMware, citing the absence of a superior modern platform and the lengthy, costly process typically involved (three or more years). Instead, she recommends a targeted approach:
- Identify applications suitable for modernization and re-platforming (which may take up to a year).
- Avoid rushing migrations; focus on modernizing specific workloads that will benefit most.
Platform Evaluation and Migration Options
Palmer suggests a tiered approach to evaluating alternatives:
1. Nutanix: The top choice, given comparable platforms and strong migration tools, despite similar pricing to VMware. 2. Public clouds: Recommended, with a caveat regarding cost and workload suitability for Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS). 3. Azure Stack HCI (Azure Local): An on-premise cloud-in-a-box solution supporting up to 16 hosts—better suited for smaller environments. 4. Windows Server with Hyper-V: An option, though Palmer notes Microsoft’s waning enthusiasm for Hyper-V, favoring Azure integrations. 5. Red Hat Virtualization: The last resort, as VMware considers it a competitor but advises caution due to limited organizational support skills. 6. OpenStack and KubeVirt: Not recommended unless organizations possess the specialized skills required.
Cautions and Considerations
Palmer warns against platforms driven solely by cost reduction motives, emphasizing the importance of modernization and operational improvements during migrations. She praises Nutanix’s storage and support capabilities over VMware and advocates exploring VMware’s own private cloud solution, Cloud Foundation (VCF) 9, which benefits from Broadcom’s heavy R&D investment.
Pricing and Future Outlook
Palmer notes that VMware’s licenses are increasingly expensive, especially for remote and edge locations, leading to customer concerns about future price hikes under Broadcom. She advises customers to avoid locking into a single vendor and instead maintain flexibility.
Broadcom’s Growth and Customer Adoption
Recent results reveal strong sales growth of VMware products, with many of Broadcom’s top customers adopting VCF 9. The vendor is optimistic about onboarding an additional 20,000-30,000 smaller customers soon.
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Summary
- Over a third of VMware workloads are expected to shift away from the platform by 2028.
- Licensing changes and vendor strategies are accelerating this trend.
- Customers should focus on selective modernization rather than complete migrations.
- Nutanix and public cloud providers are prominent options for those seeking alternatives.
- VMware’s private cloud offers a viable but potentially costly solution.
- Maintaining flexibility and avoiding vendor lock-in are crucial amid evolving market dynamics.
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