Prediction markets push into mainstream media through sponsorships, reporter pitches, and data partnerships
In recent months, prediction markets have been rooting themselves more deeply in mainstream news and culture. High-profile examples include Polymarket odds plastered across live Golden Globes coverage, the AP licensing election data to Kalshi, and a Polymarket–Substack collaboration that brings market data into newsletters. Some exchanges are even trying to strike deals directly with individual reporters.
Rick Ellis, an independent entertainment journalist who runs AllYourScreens.com and writes a Substack newsletter about TV and streaming, says he was approached this week with a concrete offer. The proposal would have him produce two stories per week based on prediction-market data—topics like who might win this season of Survivor or which Love Is Blind couples end up together. The suggested payment was described as “mid to upper hundreds” of dollars per post, with potential for more if the articles hit engagement targets. Ellis did not disclose which exchange made the offer and ultimately declined, explaining that accepting such a deal would cross a line he isn’t willing to cross.
Journalists routinely face pitches from PR firms, data providers, and other entities seeking coverage, which can blur lines between editorial work and sponsored material. News outlets—both independent and large-scale—sometimes publish sponsored content, though editorial control typically remains with the newsroom. Paying a journalist to mention a company or to rely on a specific firm’s data, however, would breach many outlets’ ethics policies and could jeopardize a writer’s job.
Kalshi declined to comment for this piece; Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment. The Verge’s Mia Sato was seeking comment at the time of reporting.
Prediction markets let people wager on the outcomes of future events, from broad questions like “Will the Iranian regime fall by a certain date?” to lighter bets about celebrity weddings. Over the last year, some outlets have begun citing Polymarket and Kalshi odds in coverage, and a sponsorship program now places market data in popular Substack newsletters with disclosures such as “This is part of a data partnership with Polymarket.” Both platforms argue that their wagers provide useful data, analogous to polling data or traditional news sources, while critics label the activity gambling. Kalshi faces multiple lawsuits, including a case brought by Arizona’s attorney general accusing it of running an illegal gambling business.
Proponents say that having respected journalists reference market data can lend legitimacy to the industry. In contrast, the market is locked in a public-relations scramble to expand exposure in the U.S.—with Polymarket and Kalshi trading headlines as they vie for dominance and try to distance themselves from one another.
Ellis emphasizes that even though entertainment media often already operates within a system of behind-the-scenes financial incentives—advertisers and studios alike—the ethics of journalism still matter deeply. He notes that the profession’s core value is trust with readers, and that a paid assignment tied to a data provider would be difficult to reconcile with that trust. He refrains not only for personal ethics but also to preserve the integrity of his newsletter, which many readers rely on for its independent analysis.
As media organizations shrink and the information ecosystem grows more fragmented, the temptation to monetize coverage with data partnerships and sponsored content remains potent. The industry’s ongoing debate about ethics, influence, and independence is unlikely to fade as prediction markets seek broader legitimacy and larger audiences.